Tropical development likely in Cayman Islands

Surface wind analysis from Tuesday morning showing a weak cyclonic circulation in the southwest Caribbean Sea

"Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight". The tropical disturbance, although it has a high chance for development into a fully tropical system, doesn't have too much time to do so.

The NHC issued a tropical storm warning for Cuba.

Rain and showers associated with a northern cold front are just the beginning of wet weather rolling over the Cayman Islands this weekend. By Saturday, the system could bring heavy rain across parts of south Florida and the Florida Keys.

Places in South Florida - particularly the southeast coast - can expect gusty winds and heavy rain throughout the day Saturday, perhaps three inches or more in localized areas.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Cuba during the next couple of days. This is a hotbed of tropical origins that we'll be watching through the end of October and into November. More than 7 percent of the season's activity is yet to come in terms of average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric used to measure wind energy produced by tropical cyclones.

The disturbance in the southwestern Gulf is now Potential Tropical Cyclone #18, meaning it will likely become Tropical Depression 18 or a Tropical Storm.

In the record-setting 2005 season, three tropical storms formed in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the probability of development to 80 percent, as a tropical system moves north off the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. The downpours will then move up in the Miami metro area by mid-morning, spreading further north into the rest of South Florida by early afternoon.

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